Consensus Estimates

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Scandinavian Tobacco Group - Consensus Estimates
Updated May 12, 2020
Contributors Carnegie, Deutsche Bank, Handelsbanken, Nordea, SEB Enskilda

               
DKK million Q1 2019A Q1 2020E   2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E
               
- North America Online & Retail 496 507   2,398 2400 2475 2515
- North America Branded 257 258   1,219 1183 1203 1199
- Region Machine-Made Cigars 348 509   1,653 2338 2345 2303
- Region Smoking Tobacco & Acc. 363 343   1,601 1531 1544 1530
Net Sales (Group) 1,464 1668   6,870 7647 7771 7752
               
- North America Online & Retail 182 189   903 915 954 973
- North America Branded 147 143   689 680 704 707
- Region Machine-Made Cigars 177 255   860 1176 1203 1194
- Region Smoking Tobacco & Acc. 178 170   861 814 836 837
Gross Profit Before Special items (Group) 684 781   3,314 3703 3823 3838
               
- North America Online & Retail 50 56   384 401 428 444
- North America Branded 45 46   277 270 281 278
- Region Machine-Made Cigars 64 90   385 508 572 604
- Region Smoking Tobacco & Acc. 101 95   544 519 533 535
- Group costs -21 -21   -77 -83 -83 -83
EBITDA before special items 239 275   1,513 1656 1784 1839
               
Special items -24 -179   -133 -491 -133 -60
EBIT 119 -3   977 748 1219 1350
               
Pre tax profit 119 -22   949 672 1149 1281
Net profit 93 -25   748 504 894 1002
               
Earnings Per Share, EPS 0.9 -0.4   7.5 5.1 8.3 9.1
EPS adjusted * 1.1 1.3   8.5 9.8 10.8 11.3
Dividend Per Share       6.1 6.4 6.8 7.1
               
Free Cash Flow before acquisitions 72     1,187 921 1020 1148
Net interest bearing debt       2330 3643 3410 3046
               
Net sales, organic growth -1.6% -3.0%   -2.6% -3.8% 2.1% -0.1%
EBITDA, organic growth 7.3% 2.9%   7.1% -2.8% 9.7% 3.7%
               
* EPS adjusted for special items, net of tax