Consensus Estimates

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Scandinavian Tobacco Group - Consensus Estimates
Updated October 24, 2018
Contributors SEB Enskilda, Carnegie, Deutsche Bank, Nordea, ABG, Handelsbanken

DKK million Q3 2017 Q3 2018 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E
 - Handmade cigars 530 687 1.921 2.372 2.610 2.702
 - Machine-made cigars 665 623 2.491 2.370 2.340 2.306
 - Pipe tobacco 143 128 544 500 498 493
 - Fine-cut tobacco 156 154 598 579 590 599
 - Other 227 230 909 942 955 960
Net Sales (Group) 1.721 1.858 6.464 6.782 7.055 7.137
             
 - Handmade cigars 227 285 795 943 1.039 1.077
 - Machine-made cigars 345 334 1.268 1.275 1.252 1.234
 - Pipe tobacco 84 77 326 298 295 293
 - Fine-cut tobacco 98 95 364 351 349 356
 - Other 92 95 342 366 368 374
Gross Profit (Group) 846 903 3.095 3.240 3.321 3.351
           
EBITDA 388 398 1.232 1.248 1.344 1.401
Non recurring items -6 -9 -52 -62 -34 -23
EBITDA adjusted 394 405 1.283 1.328 1.399 1.436
             
EBIT 306 318 913 961 1.040 1.078
Pre tax profit 292 300 852 910 975 1.019
Net profit 224 231 712 699 749 800
             
Free Cash Flow 342 421 955 502 796 926
Capex -31 -48 -94 -183 -170 -172
             
Inventory 2.594 2.587 2.421 2.532 2.617 2.641
Net interest bearing debt 2.243 2.897 2.247 2.538 2.359 2.066
DIV/share     9,3 6,0 6,3 6,7
EPS 2,2 2,2 7,1 7,1 7,6 7,9
             
Net sales, organic growth -1,1% 0,3% -2,2% 1,8% 1,2% 1,2%
Adj. EBITDA, organic growth -0,8% 2,3% -7,4% 3,6% 4,8% 3,1%